The ECB left key rates unchanged after the July meeting, as anticipated, and reiterated in its policy statement that they will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining appropriate monetary policy stance.
In the post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that risks to economic growth remain tilted to the downside but reiterated that they are in a "wait and watch" situation, given the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the EU-US trade relations on inflation dynamics and the economic outlook.
Following the ECB event, J.P. Morgan said that they revised the timing of the next ECB rate cut to October from September. Additionally, Goldman Sachs noted that they no longer forecast another ECB rate reduction in 2025.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar benefited from the upbeat data releases and made it difficult for EUR/USD to gather bullish momentum despite the ECB's hawkish tone on Thursday. The US Department of Labor reported that the weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 217,000 from 221,000 in the previous week. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 227,000. Moreover, the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 54.6 in July's flash estimate from 52.9 in June, highlighting an ongoing expansion in the private sector's business activity at an accelerating pace.
The US economic calendar will feature Durable Goods Orders data for June on Friday. A positive surprise could be supportive for the USD heading into the weekend. Nevertheless, EUR/USD is likely to keep its footing unless there is a significant negative shift in risk mood. At the time of press, US stock index futures were up about 0.15% on the day.
