Litecoin has been doing really well the last couple of days. Hitting a new all time high of 95$ (not in terms of BTC). People are once again getting hyped up and you might ask yourself the question: Should I invest in Litcoin? (if you haven't already). In this critical analysis I will breakdown the charts and explain why I am out of the litecoin game and have no intentions to return.

Before I begin this critcical analysis I want to point out that I value crypto over fiat. (f.e. I am more interested in increasing my amount of bitcoin rather than gaining more dollars)

Segwit Activation (05/10/2017)

On may 10th Litecoin hit the a price of 0.0219 btc (38$ at the time) a price that litecoin hadn't seen since 2013. Prior to this event litcoin had been somewhat stagnant/slightly bearish for around 3 years. Hovering around 3-4$ a piece. So what caused this spike in price? You guessed it, the activation of segwit on the litecoin chain. It's a well known phenomena that good news often drives investors to buy the specific token and that's exactly what happend here. However when segwit actually got activated we witnessed a sell off that approximately lasted an entire month.

Charlie Lee leaves coinbase (06/13/2017)

On June 13th Charlie Lee resigns from Coinbase to 'focus' his efforts on his creation Litcoin. Once again investors go crazy and Litcoin pumps back to the same high, 0.0219 (but 50$ this time), of May 10th. After the top is reached on the 5th of July we witness another sell off that lasts until mid August.

(source)

Lightning Network (around mid-august)

Rumors start popping up that litecoin is trying out litecoin transactions and on September 1st the first litcoin transaction takes place. Once again prices go crazy and the litcoin price jumps up to 0.019 BTC (around 95$).

(source)

Conclusions

After lightning network happened 2 days ago. I was certain that litcoin wouldn't be on my invest list simply because I feel like litcoin is too news/hype reliant. When segwit activated we knew, logically, that lightning network was next at some point (I never tought it would be this soon). In the mean time Charlie Lee happened as well. But right now the question remains what's next? Since I can't properly answer this question I find it too risky investing in this bitcoin beta.

Feel free to let me know if you are investing in litcoin (of are already)